CA DoJ: OpenJustice Hypothesis Testing & Predictive Modeling

Partner(s) California Department of Justice
DSWG Teammates Catherine Zhang, Matthew Mollison, PhD, John Huynh, Saniya Jesupaul, Biljana Rolih, Ph.D., Alex Novet, Jude Calvillo (Lead)

Project Detail

The members of the Data Science Working Group have been charged with answering, via inferential statistics, some of the California Department of Justice’s inquiries around criminal justice. These more pointed inquiries were inspired by the OpenJustice project’s exploratory analyses at OpenJustice.org.

Status, as of September 14, 2016:

The Prompts

  1. Which counties/agencies arrest African American juveniles at a statistically significantly higher rate than that of other counties/agencies?
    • Extending analysis to each ethnic group represented
    • Drilling down to felonies vs. misdemeanors
  2. For the same criminal offense, are particular ethnic juvenile groups more likely to be treated with harsher consequences by law enforcement?
  3. Statewide, what contextual and ethnic factors best predict the arrest of juveniles for felonies?
  4. Statewide, what contextual and ethnic factors best predict the arrest of juveniles for battery, specifically?
  5. For resource allocation prompt: ~. predictors to statewide crime rate (i.e. not necessarily optimization; just a first, exploratory step, probably via LM)